Risk segmentation to make smarter customer contact

Using IFRS 9 data, risk modelling, and operational modelling to enhance customer experience of a brand.

1. Overview

Risk‑aware outreach improves outcomes for customers and brands. By combining IFRS 9 credit risk data with behavioural engagement and operational constraints, teams can decide who to contact, how to contact, and when—in a way that is fair, effective and auditable.

2. IFRS 9 data foundations

IFRS 9 classifies financial assets across impairment stages with expected credit loss (ECL) measurement:

• Stage 1: Performing. 12‑month ECL; no significant increase in credit risk (SICR).
• Stage 2: Underperforming. Lifetime ECL; SICR since initial recognition.
• Stage 3: Credit‑impaired. Lifetime ECL; objective evidence of impairment.

Key model outputs typically include PD (probability of default), LGD (loss given default), and EAD (exposure at default). Forward‑looking macro overlays and qualitative factors (e.g., hardship flags) must be controlled and auditable.

3. Risk modelling → actionable signals

Translate model outputs into contact decisions:

• Eligibility: Only contact with valid consent and allowed purpose; respect quiet hours and vulnerable flags.
• Priority: Rank by risk‑adjusted value (e.g., propensity × exposure × likelihood to respond).
• Treatment: Choose tone, content and journey by segment (e.g., reassurance vs. resolution).

Augment with behavioural signals: recent opens/clicks/replies, channel preferences, payment history, and service interactions. Maintain a clear separation between credit risk variables and marketing variables to avoid leakage and bias.

4. Operational modelling → channel, timing, capacity

• Channel selection: SMS for urgency/short form; Email for detail/compliance content. Use historic engagement to inform channel.
• Send‑time optimisation: Windowed delivery that avoids quiet hours and aligns to past engagement windows.
• Capacity & throttling: Pace sends to match agent capacity and regulatory limits; pause when reply backlog rises.
• Templates: Pre‑approved variants per segment and channel; use variables like {{name}} and policy‑safe dynamic content.

5. Segmentation framework

• Assurance (Stage 1, low PD): Brand value, education, proactive service checks.
• Watchlist (Stage 1→2, PD ↑): Payment nudges, plan fit review, soft reminders.
• Support (Stage 2, medium PD): Budget tools, alternative plans, early hardship signposting.
• Resolution (Stage 3, high PD): Clear next steps, compliant scripts, agent handoff.

6. Contact strategy mapping

• Tone: Reassure → Nudge → Support → Resolve, aligned to segment.
• Cadence: Low frequency for Assurance; increasing cadence with safeguards for Watchlist/Support; human‑led for Resolution.
• Channel: Begin with preferred/most engaged; escalate to multi‑channel only where appropriate.
• Exit criteria: Stop conditions (reply received, opt‑out, case created) and cool‑off windows.

7. Data, fairness, compliance

• Lawful basis & consent for each contact purpose; store and honour opt‑outs.
• Bias & fairness: Monitor model drift and disparate impact; keep sensitive attributes out of treatment decisions.
• Explainability: Keep an audit trail of inputs, rules, templates, and sends.
• Security: Minimise PII in templates; encrypt at rest; restrict access by role.

8. Implementing in Channl

• Lists: Upload segmented CSVs (e.g., Assurance, Watchlist, Support, Resolution) or tag within Contacts.
• Templates: Maintain approved SMS/Email variants per segment; use variables like {{name}} and {{amount_due}}.
• Quiet hours and opt‑out: Respect automatically; keep audit events exportable.
• Unified inbox: Route replies to the right queue; label by segment for reporting.
• A/B testing: Duplicate templates, vary tone/call‑to‑action, measure reply and resolution rates.

9. Metrics & experiments

• Engagement: Delivery, open/click (email), reply rate (SMS/WhatsApp), time‑to‑first‑reply.
• Outcome: Promise‑to‑pay, completed payment, plan change, case creation.
• Risk: Migration rates across IFRS 9 stages, delinquency roll rates, net ECL impact.
• Ops: Agent handle time, backlog, SLA, throttle pauses.

10. Example playbooks

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